Is a heatwave on the way?

Much hotter weather is on the way.

It’s been a cool start to July with temperatures running about 2C below average for the first half of the month. Temperatures reached 25C for the first time in the month on Wednesday at Wisley, Surrey – not very high for the height of summer.

Highest temperatures are expected to reach 27C or 28C on Thursday with the heat really concentrated across the Midlands and southern and eastern England. Heat health alerts have been issued from 17:00 BST for these areas.

The heat isn’t across the whole of the UK, however. While it will be quite warm for Wales and northern and western England, for Northern Ireland and Scotland it will be cloudier with temperatures close to, or a little below average.

This brief hot spell will peak on Friday with temperatures set to reach 30C or 31C in parts of south-east England, which could make it the hottest day of the year so far.

The current highest temperature of the year stands at 30.5C recorded at Wisley, Surrey, on the 26 June – so it’s going to come down to a matter of tenths of a degree as to whether we surpass this figure or not.

Temperatures will ease more widely on Saturday, but it will stay warm in parts of East Anglia and south-east England.

For this to be declared a heatwave the Midlands, much of southern England and East Anglia would need to have three successive days above 27C. For London and some of the home counties we’d need to have three days above 28C. So we’re likely to just fall short of this brief hot spell officially being a heatwave in most areas.

Temperatures have reached or exceeded the 30C mark every summer since 1993, so it’s not unusual for the weather to get this hot.

The number of days we see over 30C during summer has vastly increased in recent decades compared with the early 20th Century as a result of climate change.