Samuel Corum/Getty ImagesU.S. government bonds are about to complete one of their worst quarters for total returns in the past 157 years.That’s according to Deutsche Bank AG’s Jim Reid, head of thematic research, who cites data stretching back to the U.S. Civil War. Thursday will mark the end of what’s set to be the worst quarter for the 10-year U.S. Treasury since the early 1980s, he says. The only other period with even worse total quarterly returns for 10-year Treasurys or their equivalents was the fourth quarter of 1931, during the Great Depression, according to data since 1865.Sources: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank The analysis by Deutsche Bank AG DB comes a day after a widely followed spread between 2- and 10-year yields briefly inverted for the first time since 2019, raising the possibility of a U.S. recession at some point. Meanwhile, data compiled by Bank of America Corp. BAC shows that the return on government bonds is on track for its worst year since 1949. And a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS team is raising the prospect of a “lost decade” for the 60/40 portfolio mix of stocks and bonds.On Wednesday, investors swung between selling off and buying Treasurys, with yields broadly higher earlier in the day before slipping. The 10-year rate hovered below 2.4%, while the shorter-term 2-year yield was just three basis points away, at 2.3%. Meanwhile, a lower open for major U.S. stock indexes DJIASPXCOMP is putting a four-day win streak on the line for Dow industrials and the S&P 500 Index.
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