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Alaska Air says holiday-quarter demand is ‘robust’ as it tweaks outlook

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Alaska Air Group Inc. said in a Tuesday morning investor update that it’s seen “robust” demand during the fourth quarter, including during the Thanksgiving holiday period. “Our demand outlook for the rest of the quarter remains strong despite modest softening in corporate travel bookings,” the company said in its update. “Holiday demand in late December is trending in line with the strength we saw in Thanksgiving travel.” Alaska Air now expects capacity, or available seat miles, to be down 7% to 9% from 2019 levels in the fourth quarter, whereas the company’s prior expectation was for the metric to be down about 7% to 10%. Alaska Air also now expects a passenger load factor of about 84% to 86%, compared with an outlook for about 83% to 86% previously. Total revenue is expected to be up 13% to 14% from 2019 levels, whereas the prior forecast was for a 12% to 15% increase. In looking to 2023, Alaska expects to grow pre-tax margins and increase capacity 8% to 10%. “Given the timing of aircraft deliveries and transition training constraints in early 2023, we expect to reach pre-pandemic capacity levels in late 1Q23,” the company said. “From there, we expect growth to ramp in the second half of the year as long as demand continues to support these plans.”

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