The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday left its forecast for growth in world oil demand unchanged at 3.4 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2022, with total demand projected to average 100.3 mb/d. In its monthly report, OPEC said it raised its estimate of first-quarter demand, but cut second-quarter demand due to the “resurgence of COVID-19 in China and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.” For 2023, world oil-demand growth is expected to slow to 2.7 mb/d to average 103.0 mb/d, “supported by a still solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as improved geopolitical developments and containment of COVID-19 in China,” the report said. The forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 remains broadly unchanged from the June assessment, despite upward revisions to China and Canada, and is now expected to grow by 2.1 mb/d to average 65.7 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for the year are expected to be the U.S., Canada, Brazil, China, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while production is expected to decline mainly in Russia, Indonesia and Thailand. In 2023, non-OPEC liquids production is projected to grow by 1.7 mb/d to average 67.4 mb/d, OPEC said. “Consumption remains robust, especially in the advanced economies, with an expected continued recovery particularly in the contact-intensive services sector, which includes travel and transportation activity, leisure and hospitality,” OPEC said. “However, significant downside risks exist, stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions, the continued pandemic, rising inflation, aggravated supply chain issues, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, and expected monetary tightening by central banks in the U.S., the U.K., Japan and the eurozone,” the report said.
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